This afternoon I was talking with Tony Warriner, a colleague and friend from my time at Revolution, when we touched ont he subject of niche games, which led onto the subject of adventure games. Clearly, the adventure genre isn't dead because adventure games continue to sell, but it ahs quite clearly become a niche market.
We talked about sales figures and came to the conclusion that if a game sells 100,000 copies it's likely to be regarded as a hit. Because the developer is likely to get only 3-4 Euros for each game sold, an adventure that has a budget of more than 400,000 Euros is going to be a big risk and although may make some money for the publisher is unlikely to generate additional income for the developer, over an above what the publisher has given to fund the project. The harsh reality is likely to be that we can only expect low-budget adventure games from now on.
This isn't necessarily a bad thing. If the games are designed and developed with the low budget in mind from the start, the emphasis can be placed where it really belongs - on the gameplay. What really drains a game project of its money is the over-dependence on expensive graphics and animation. This doesn't mean that games should be created with bad graphics, just that the quality should be maximised within the constraints.
When you begin to think beyond adventures, to the wider markets, and think about the fact that most games fail to make profits for their developers, you realise that adventures aren't the only games that are niche games.
Looking at the film industry for a moment, a top film will have audiences of 100 million or more, which is huge in comparison to the five million that a top game will sell. When you take into account the fact that there are far more games released each year than films, it seems to me that ALL game genres are niche markets - it's just that some niches are bigger than others.
The book selling industry realised this a long time ago. It's why they organise their books into the various niches the books are aimed at - Sci-Fi, Crime, Romance, Horror, Biography, etc.
The "mass market" is a myth and the sooner the industry realises that it is catering for a series of niches the better it will be for all concerned.